INTELLIGENCE
90-Day Cash Flow Forecast — what your bank balance looks like next quarter.
Forward-looking cash position with confidence intervals. Combines recurring revenue, expected bills, accounts receivable timing, accounts payable timing, and seasonal patterns. Tells you the specific month your runway ends — with enough notice to act.
Your projected cash balance for each of the next 90 days, with confidence ranges that widen further out.
Why historical cash flow is not enough
Most accounting tools show you historical cash flow. You can see what happened last month, last quarter, last year. The view is rear-facing.
Historical cash flow tells you the trajectory you have been on. It cannot tell you the trajectory you are on. By the time a cash crisis shows up in historical reporting, it is already a crisis. The window to act has narrowed.
A real cash flow forecast looks forward. It accounts for recurring revenue you can predict, bills you have already committed to pay, customer invoices on AR aging, vendor payments on AP aging, and seasonal patterns from your historical data. It produces a daily projected cash balance for the next 90 days — with confidence intervals that widen further out, because the future is less certain than the past.
This is the difference between knowing you ran out of cash and knowing you will run out of cash on March 14 unless you take a specific action by February 28.
How Incremenza forecasts cash flow correctly
Inputs to the forecast
The forecast pulls from multiple data sources continuously:
- Recurring Revenue — Active subscriptions and their billing cycles, with expected MRR for each forecast day
- Expected Bills — Recurring expenses identified by pattern detection, with their typical billing dates
- Accounts Receivable — Outstanding invoices, weighted by historical payment timing per customer
- Accounts Payable — Vendor bills with due dates, weighted by company payment patterns
- Seasonal Patterns — Historical revenue and expense seasonality from prior years
- One-Time Items — Manually entered planned revenue or expenses (one-time deals, equipment purchases, scheduled investments)
Confidence intervals
For each forecast day, the system produces three numbers: a most-likely projection, a conservative scenario (lower bound), and an optimistic scenario (upper bound). The range widens for days further out — day 90 has a much wider confidence range than day 7.
The conservative scenario assumes:
- AR collected later than typical (75th percentile of historical payment delay)
- AP paid on time (no float)
- Recurring revenue churn slightly higher than average
The optimistic scenario assumes the inverse.
The "runway ends" alert
When the conservative scenario shows cash falling below a threshold (default zero, configurable), the system flags the specific day and surfaces the alert in your weekly briefing and dashboard. This is the most actionable output of the forecast — it gives you a date to plan against.
13-week extension (Command plan)
The 13-week cash forecast is the same calculation extended further out, with finer granularity for businesses with complex cash cycles (especially product businesses with inventory commitments). Useful for businesses where 90 days is not enough lead time.
Four things to verify in any cash flow forecast
1. Does it use real billing data or your guesses?
A "forecast" that asks you to manually enter expected revenue and expenses each month is not a forecast — it is a budget. A real forecast pulls live data continuously and updates as conditions change.
2. Does it account for AR/AP timing?
A forecast that treats invoiced revenue as cash received on the invoice date is wrong. It must weight by actual payment timing — customers who pay slowly should not appear as cash on the invoice date.
3. Does it produce confidence intervals?
A single line projecting future cash creates false precision. Future cash is uncertain; the forecast must show the range. Tools that give a single point estimate are pretending to know more than they do.
4. Is it built into your operational rhythm?
A cash flow forecast that lives in a spreadsheet you update once a month is not useful. The forecast must update continuously and surface the most important alert (date your runway ends in the conservative scenario) automatically.
Where you see the cash flow forecast inside Incremenza
- Cash Flow Dashboard — Primary view, with daily cash projection chart
- Performance Dashboard — Forecast headline numbers (current cash, runway, "concerning date")
- Weekly Briefing — Automatic narrative when the forecast crosses thresholds
- Quarterly Reset — Cash flow reviewed as part of quarterly score
- Owner Dashboard — Always-visible runway indicator
- My Advisor — Cash flow forecast referenced when answering related questions
Want to see your real cash flow forecast?
Take the free Profit Gap Assessment — about 5 minutes, no signup, includes a preview of your most important metrics.
Frequently asked questions
The 90-day forecast is included in all plans (Clarity, Momentum, Command). The 13-week extended forecast with finer-grained projections for complex cash cycles is in Command.
For businesses with stable recurring revenue and predictable expenses, the 30-day forecast is typically within 5% of actual. The 60- and 90-day forecasts widen as expected. Accuracy improves as Incremenza accumulates more of your historical data — businesses connecting for the first time see noticeable improvement after the first 90 days.
Yes — Scenario Planning (Command plan) lets you adjust recurring revenue, churn, expense changes, or one-time events and see how the forecast changes. Useful for evaluating decisions like "what happens if we lose this client" or "what if we hire two people in Q3."
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CASH FLOW FORECAST
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